tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post4144268544125919056..comments2024-01-16T00:12:23.220-05:00Comments on Oddball Stocks: A European net-net with a P/E of 2x and African upsideNate Tobikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-66633592877026723852012-08-26T18:35:24.121-04:002012-08-26T18:35:24.121-04:00There is really something fishy about these cash i...There is really something fishy about these cash inflows. Why are they so lumpy? And why is there no list in the Annual report about the projects they are working on, the contracted value, the estimated end date and on how much they already received?<br /><br />I checked the reports back to 2006. In 2008 they were able to cash in big time. But that was it. During all the other years they had to take on loans or spend cash to bridge the gap.<br /><br />If you look at the homepage, there seem to be many works.<br />http://www.conduril.pt/en/obras.php<br />So it is strange that payments are lumpy. Unless all the works are contracted out by one contractor like the Angolan Whatever Authority. <br /><br />There is one rather discomforting sentence on page 11 of the 2011 AR:<br />"Notwithstanding the delay in payments by our clients and the increased limitations in access to credit, the Group’s performance was positive."<br /><br />To me it seems like this company is very dependent on Angola. Looking at human resources numbers for example. If Angola decides not to pay the outstanding invoices. Bad luck!<br /><br />Another thing: The Share price in Lisbon: Bid 5 Ask 22. This is an extremely big spread like I have never seen before. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-82702323961249473312012-08-21T09:36:11.991-04:002012-08-21T09:36:11.991-04:00I'm Portuguese and it's not an uncommon fa...I'm Portuguese and it's not an uncommon family name... Thanks for alerting me to this stock... Strangely the PEs in Bloomberg are not as low... I need to do more work and compare it to Mota-Engil which is the biggest listed peer in Portugal... Many thanks for your blog, you do great work here!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-24876042581926708842012-08-21T08:24:41.351-04:002012-08-21T08:24:41.351-04:00I did end up getting some shares. I've had th...I did end up getting some shares. I've had the same thought as you, are those phantom volumes or real…<br /><br />I'd love a bigger dividend on this one, you're right 4.5% is pretty paltry.<br /><br />The Amorim family owns an enormous conglomerate in Portugal, what I've had trouble finding is if Amorim is a common name, like Smith in English. There are millions of Smith Something businesses but none are related.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-19055121866324998972012-08-21T07:47:19.616-04:002012-08-21T07:47:19.616-04:00hi nate
great write up. Did you actually get some...hi nate<br /><br />great write up. Did you actually get some shares ? I saw 2500 shares were traded on August 16th but I am never sure if those are real trades.<br /><br />A few other observations:<br /><br />- Conduril pays an OK dividend, 4.5% is Ok for waiting.<br />- maybe its a coincidence but 2 of the largest shareholders do have the name Amorim. So you might check the family at some point in time as your other investment seems to be related to them as well.<br /><br />MMImemyselfandi007http://valueandopportunity.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-69099640108367410092012-08-20T13:21:24.374-04:002012-08-20T13:21:24.374-04:00No problem!
http://web3.cmvm.pt/english/sdi2004/e...No problem!<br /><br />http://web3.cmvm.pt/english/sdi2004/emitentes/emit_cons.cfm?num_ent=%23%23%24K%5E%0A<br /><br />Here are the last few years annuals in English from their site:<br />http://www.conduril.pt/en/grupoprestacaocontas.phpNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-56280365971035731022012-08-20T13:16:10.284-04:002012-08-20T13:16:10.284-04:00Nate, it's a bit embarrassing to ask. But were...Nate, it's a bit embarrassing to ask. But were do I find the company reports on the CMVM page? I am searching for nearly an hour now... Would be very thankful for a hint ;-)Stefanhttp://simple-value-investing.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-87949695719042639572012-08-18T13:28:23.565-04:002012-08-18T13:28:23.565-04:00Thanks for the comment and the link to your post. ...Thanks for the comment and the link to your post. I did the same thing as you and ended up looking at the same set of companies.<br /><br />I've found in Portugal all companies file English language annual reports with CMVM the regulator, but don't always have them in English on their website.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-36516128101964784392012-08-18T13:26:49.257-04:002012-08-18T13:26:49.257-04:00I don't think Interactive Brokers offers the s...I don't think Interactive Brokers offers the stock, I use Fidelity as my broker, they offer Conduril, and I didn't have any problems trading it.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-51872657856131998402012-08-18T12:12:29.173-04:002012-08-18T12:12:29.173-04:00Seems very attractive, modulo potential caveat fro...Seems very attractive, modulo potential caveat from the anonymous above. <br />Is it possible to buy Conduril via Interactive Brokers? I can't<br />find this stock in their database. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-14785751796935996202012-08-18T05:42:00.808-04:002012-08-18T05:42:00.808-04:00Thanks for that interesting idea! I completely mis...Thanks for that interesting idea! I completely missed Conduril when I got through a list of portugese companies (see article on my blog). Surely because it didn't fit my criteria of a simple business. But the situation seems nevertheless worth a few hours of research, can't wait to read the annual report!Stefanhttp://simple-value-investing.com/blog/7-stocks-from-portugal-that-may-be-worth-looking-atnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-26273639639513880802012-08-17T12:32:50.887-04:002012-08-17T12:32:50.887-04:00Thanks for the comment, you're right construct...Thanks for the comment, you're right construction on the Iberian peninsula is not ideal, and the company has mentioned being more aggressive in collecting quickly on receivables. If the project sponsors are paying slowly then Conduril is probably trying to delay payments to employees as well.<br /><br />This isn't a perfect investment, yet at this price even with problems I think it's cheap.<br /><br />I skimmed Edifer's annual report as well, they're a good comparison company to Conduril. I don't know how much the ownership of them means to Conduril, but if they went bankrupt it would be a a major concern.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-67869729935656979832012-08-17T12:13:19.131-04:002012-08-17T12:13:19.131-04:00as a portuguese I investigated about 6 months ago ...as a portuguese I investigated about 6 months ago if my broker had the option available to buy those shares but there wasn't as such I didn't do a proper analysis and I gave up...<br /><br />construction sector is melting down in Portugal with very few companies surviving and in adition at the same time I heard about conduril being cheap I read in a portuguese newspaper that Edifer (belongs in 33% to conduril) was late in wages and had a major order canceled due to poor finantial conditions of Edifer and was near bankrupcy... then they have a big position in Angola but I also read that in Angola companies were having problems in being paid (not sure if it was related to Conduril or not)<br /><br />These red flags blew up my curiosity so i didn't check why my portuguese broker didn't have that stock... Maybe after re-reading here about conduril I'll do a proper analysisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-731897063372008422012-08-17T10:23:05.380-04:002012-08-17T10:23:05.380-04:00They are located in Portugal (half of my readers j...<i>They are located in Portugal (half of my readers just closed their tabs), they do business in Africa (the other half leaves) and they're family owned (crickets). </i><br /><br />Some come for the investment analysis. As for me, I come for the free stand-up comedy hour.<br /><br />Good stuff!Taylor Conanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18270678440957992085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-45097779150105428252012-08-17T09:23:37.895-04:002012-08-17T09:23:37.895-04:00Genuinely cheap, this one. Thanks for the post.
T...Genuinely cheap, this one. Thanks for the post.<br /><br />The odd thing about this business is how high the operating margins are even though the gross margins are what one would expect -- maybe it's the owner-operator effect. <br /><br />On a more general, more long-term point, African growth will benefit African financial institutions, Western consumer brands, and Chinese everything else. Best place to look for exposure is probably in African banks and insurance companies..<br /><br /><br /><br />red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-27222092056885638142012-08-17T08:42:39.668-04:002012-08-17T08:42:39.668-04:00Nate, thank you for this interesting discovery. On...Nate, thank you for this interesting discovery. One of the things to keep in mind with companies that build infrastructure projects in emerging markets is the unbelievable level of corruption that companies need to engage in order to get the deals. This is a very slippery terrain they have to operate in. The risks are not only in the economics of each individual project but also on a reputational level as has been the case with Siemens for example. In the case of Conduril these risks seem to be priced in but I just wanted to mention that it needs to be point of consideration. <br />Best,<br />Robert xyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07839517164380111599noreply@blogger.com