tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post4625145317043035482..comments2024-01-16T00:12:23.220-05:00Comments on Oddball Stocks: International net-net's one year later (performance update)Nate Tobikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-81581332735466092142012-01-26T21:10:27.718-05:002012-01-26T21:10:27.718-05:00Really facinating summary. Interesting about Germ...Really facinating summary. Interesting about Germany. Is that because Germany has thrived economically as the rest of the EZ has gone down the tubes?farmland investmenthttp://www.greenworldbvi.com/alternative-investments-options/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-75949454807899509062012-01-25T10:29:28.373-05:002012-01-25T10:29:28.373-05:00biolitec AGbiolitec AGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-9990918821657464082012-01-24T12:17:43.207-05:002012-01-24T12:17:43.207-05:00Bonjour Anon,
Mon francais ne pas bon désolé.
3U...Bonjour Anon,<br /><br />Mon francais ne pas bon désolé.<br /><br />3U Holdings AG semble intéressant, je vais les recherches. Merci pour le conseil.<br /><br />NateNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-34319607980354538192012-01-23T05:56:59.532-05:002012-01-23T05:56:59.532-05:00Bonjour,
Que pensez vous de 3U Holdings AG, une e...Bonjour,<br /><br />Que pensez vous de 3U Holdings AG, une entreprise Allemande de Télécom qui viens de ce lance dans le photovoltaïque .<br /><br />J’ai calculé la marge de sécurité sur la VANN, en appliquant 30% de décote sur les créances (allongement des durée de paiement) et 20% sur le stock par précaution. Il semble que le stock est considérablement augmenter depuis que l’activité photovoltaïque soit lancée, ce qui est normal.<br /><br />Actif courant réévalué = Cash + 0.7*Receivables + 0.8*Inventory<br />Actif courant réévalué = 33 + 0.7* 15 + 0.8*6.54<br />Actif courant réévalué = 33 + 10.5 + 5.232<br />Actif courant réévalué = 48.732<br />Total Dettes réévalués = 11<br /><br />VANN = ( Actif courant réévalué – Total dettes) / Total action<br />VANN = ( 48.732 -11) / 39.43 = 0.957<br /><br />Marge de sécurité sur la VANN = (0.957 – 0.731 ) / 0.957 = 23.6%<br /><br />Au prix de 0.731, les marges de sécurité sont importantes sur la VANN.<br />Les risques me semble minimes sachant que je n’ai pas tenu compte des points suivants pour évaluer la société:<br />Property, plant & equipment, net: 0.20 par action<br />Long term investments: 0.24 par action<br />Un plan de rachat d’action l’année dernière<br />Achats des initiés récents<br />EPS : 0.78 par actionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-77024800485470352902012-01-19T09:33:02.256-05:002012-01-19T09:33:02.256-05:00Richard,
Very good point about director holdings,...Richard,<br /><br />Very good point about director holdings, this is something I look at but probably don't actively focus on, interestingly enough of the net-net's I currently own outside of the Japanese ones all of them have a significant majority holder. I guess this is a subconscious criteria.<br /><br />You bring up a transformative acquisition, I think this is the largest risk to a net-net. Most investors are worried the company will go out of business when they should be worried that management will blow cash and financing on a merger with the hope of saving the ship. I don't know how to guard against this.<br /><br />I have experienced the transformative acquisition once with Audiovox (VOXX). I think I actually wrote them up right before it happened. Management went out and spent cash and got loans on a related company. At the time it shook out a lot of shareholders, I held on for a bit then eventually sold. Looking back I should have held on, the shares went from the 6s to over 12 now. I would say this is an exceptional case, most often acquisitions will do nothing except destroy cash.<br /><br />NateNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-78131001167969108792012-01-19T06:07:18.170-05:002012-01-19T06:07:18.170-05:00Just thinking I also require directors to own a la...Just thinking I also require directors to own a large shareholding. Since the companies are cash rich and doing badly I want some reassurance management won't take one last throw of the dice and blow all the cash on a gamble, like a 'transformative' acquisition. Obviously they might, any way, but I'd hope they'd be conservative with their own cash.Richard Beddardhttp://beddard.net/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-37817620564008445152012-01-18T17:57:12.527-05:002012-01-18T17:57:12.527-05:00Excellent summary Nate. Thanks.Excellent summary Nate. Thanks.Richard Beddardhttp://beddard.net/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-25166068401794506992012-01-16T21:01:05.894-05:002012-01-16T21:01:05.894-05:00Caque,
Thanks for the comment you're right on...Caque,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment you're right on the money. Since I didn't research each company I just took every one of them at face value, but I did notice a number of closed end funds mixed in. Screener.co was ok in finding these, but the data wasn't that great, I wish there was a reliable site for foreign net-net's but without paying for Bloomberg I just don't think it's possible.<br /><br />I also wanted to say I love your blog. I looked at SAMP and Tessi that you'd posted about, I like your approach. My French is bad, but I enjoy fumbling through trying to expand my vocab and then matching what I thought I read vs your English translation. <br /><br />Thanks for the link to the daubasses blog, I've read it before but didn't have it bookmarked. It seems like you need to have a premium account to see current purchases though. <br /><br />Thanks for reading, I'm hoping we'll see some French net-net's in 2012.<br /><br />NateNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-38449455223569811952012-01-16T16:20:52.132-05:002012-01-16T16:20:52.132-05:00Hello
Just out of curiosity I checked your xls for...Hello<br />Just out of curiosity I checked your xls for French net-nets.<br />Found 4 under FRA exchange : SOFR is a holding company (financial), TAYN is also a holding company (commercial real-estate), ARDO and MLARDO are the same stock for a super-obscure trading company that traded just once this year, on an un-regulated exchange (ML = Marche Libre).<br />So none of them would fit Graham criteria for a net net anyway.<br /><br />I personally invested last year only in one net-net : SAM (ticker SAMP) (listed on Euronext Paris, makes professional tools) and the outcome was better (see http://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/2012/01/bilan-2011-review.html). No statistical signification though.<br /><br />This blog (not mine, they're based in Belgium) http://blog.daubasses.com/ specializes in situations with a large discount to book value and on occasion on net-nets (daubasse ~ French slang for junk).<br /><br />My conclusion ?<br />I'd be super cautious on international net-nets. I'm not sure there's a reliable database to work with (at least in France, the situation is probably much better in the US or the UK ?).<br /><br />Anyway thanks for the blog and your work, and my best 2012 wishes.Caquehttp://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-51337868305529674102012-01-16T10:49:40.481-05:002012-01-16T10:49:40.481-05:00Mark,
As strange as it sounds I was hoping that l...Mark,<br /><br />As strange as it sounds I was hoping that looking through this data might expose some criteria I was using unknowingly, unfortunately it didn't.<br /><br />I do actually have a process that I use with regards to net-net's. The actual process is spread out in parts across posts on the blog but I will summarize it here.<br /><br />1) I always check to see the makeup of the current assets, I prefer cash and receivables to inventory.<br />2) Check the liabilities, this is important leases are often lurking and sometimes there are contingent liabilities that have a hold on assets. I try to avoid debt ridden companies. If a company is doing poorly often management will want to lever it up but banks won't lever up junk, so bank debt can be a way of looking at the true value of the assets in some ways.<br />3) If a valid asset margin is established (liquid, little or no debt, assets can be liquidated unencumbered) then I ensure the company is profitable or at least cash flow positive. I do this because I have been stuck in some net-net's where operations destroyed my asset based margin of safety meaning I didn't really have a solid margin.<br />4) If the company is cash rich and sitting on it I like to get some sort of dividend as a small return.<br />5) If the company's ncav is composed of mostly inventory then I look at the operations, I look for potential margin expansion.<br />6) I always try to identify why the company is cheap, often most net-net's deserve to be cheap they are working hard to destroy shareholder value.<br /><br />Hopefully this helps, I've used the same process with US and international companies.<br /><br />One last point on exiting a position. To me these companies are total junk, I'm hoping to hold to ncav and then promptly sell my shares. Some investors will hold on as the business starts to recover. I can't invest like that, often there's a reason these companies are cheap in the first place unless that reason is totally eliminated (management booted, lawsuit cleared) there is no reason to invest in a bad business with management that helped it get there. Maybe this is a trading mentality, but if I invested in a net-net and two days later it popped to ncav on no news I'd dump it without hesitation. If I want to hold a stock for the long term it will in almost no cases be a net-net.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-30948911061916892782012-01-16T10:28:31.297-05:002012-01-16T10:28:31.297-05:00I would be interested in hearing about your criter...I would be interested in hearing about your criteria for accepting and rejecting the stocks in your portfolio.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14217216051200082198noreply@blogger.com