tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post5091059379979328744..comments2024-01-16T00:12:23.220-05:00Comments on Oddball Stocks: Avalon Correctional, an unlisted information arbitrageNate Tobikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-13654958045031901672014-03-11T12:29:22.065-04:002014-03-11T12:29:22.065-04:00Nate, Good luck and bad over time tend to even out...Nate, Good luck and bad over time tend to even out. Not being a naysayer but if you had gotten to this company one week earlier, you might (probably?) have missed this opportunity. <br /><br />Obviously, by going through unlisted companies and looking for an informational edge, good luck is more likely to be on your side. I feel like for every opportunity that I find (didn't find this one) there are 5 others that I would say, oh if I got to this company a week earlier, I would have bought and been up 20%.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-91683164760225547542014-03-11T06:50:05.142-04:002014-03-11T06:50:05.142-04:00Hi Nate!
As most of the time an terrific article!...Hi Nate!<br /><br />As most of the time an terrific article! Great arbitrage opportunity, taken into account all the commissions. I have to know, did you make any more, retain it or lost any money?<br /><br />- RensAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08398242098706568921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-69347427965227091392014-03-10T21:02:17.123-04:002014-03-10T21:02:17.123-04:00Great story. Focusing on the small ponds can defi...Great story. Focusing on the small ponds can definitely reward investors who don't have to worry about scalability.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-11021294026004659352014-03-10T16:38:12.516-04:002014-03-10T16:38:12.516-04:00I remember CITY well; had a standing bid at $1.80,...I remember CITY well; had a standing bid at $1.80, I think, throughout 2008, and at other sub-market prices at various times thereafter, and never got a share! I liked the assets and found management okay, but had no vision of a catalyst. I guess confidence in one's conclusions should be tied in with one's willingness to pay a market price. Which reminds me that I ought to take another look at VVDL...ADLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11578314123744054067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-37815361064246486422014-03-10T14:43:36.926-04:002014-03-10T14:43:36.926-04:00My initial order was for 2,000 shares I think, I d...My initial order was for 2,000 shares I think, I didn't get a full fill. A friend got a full fill on a similar sized order.<br /><br />Looking at the reported volume online I can see maybe 5k shares or so traded. There could be volume that was unreported as is common with these stocks. I'd say the total opportunity size was maybe $20-30k.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-3973451376209744222014-03-10T14:38:26.231-04:002014-03-10T14:38:26.231-04:00nate - can you share how many shares you were able...nate - can you share how many shares you were able to purchase at the $3 level? curious how actionable this was. very interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-52549614554706648372014-03-10T13:04:07.747-04:002014-03-10T13:04:07.747-04:00Matt,
Your last sentence rings true, lots of dead...Matt,<br /><br />Your last sentence rings true, lots of dead ends indeed...<br /><br />NateNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-82995874762684837622014-03-10T13:03:49.131-04:002014-03-10T13:03:49.131-04:00I placed my order to by the following Monday, it t...I placed my order to by the following Monday, it took about a week for my shares to fill.<br /><br />As for value, I remember seeing an older balance sheet and income statement for the company. I can't find it online anymore, but at the time I remember thinking that I wasn't going to lose my shirt. If I remember correctly the tender and preferreds undervalued the company, I wasn't complaining.Nate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-86833513866427309142014-03-10T12:55:49.622-04:002014-03-10T12:55:49.622-04:00Great post, very interesting case. How soon after ...Great post, very interesting case. How soon after you found the news of tender did you move to buy shares? Did you have any indication of the value or the company (in case the tender somehow fell apart) or was this purely a play based on the legal facts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-91958947406494737992014-03-10T11:43:18.807-04:002014-03-10T11:43:18.807-04:00Good story and I can understand why you didn't...Good story and I can understand why you didn't want to post about it before. You can find value by reading things that no one else is reading, but sometimes it is hard to keep the faith that you will find something. You have to go down a lot of dead ends to find stuff like this.matjonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15561610396121006096noreply@blogger.com