tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post7463352769269237665..comments2024-01-16T00:12:23.220-05:00Comments on Oddball Stocks: A strike or a gutterball?Nate Tobikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-46004754153297736842012-09-04T08:40:00.404-04:002012-09-04T08:40:00.404-04:00Good review. Sometimes valuation isn't enough ...Good review. Sometimes valuation isn't enough of a margin of safety and dividends/buybacks provide an extra level of protection when there aren't any catalystsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-75238332782425749912012-09-02T21:17:33.107-04:002012-09-02T21:17:33.107-04:00This somehow reminds me of the current situation a...This somehow reminds me of the current situation at Sears. I have a tough time putting wood behind SHLD because of how I see Lampert's identity becoming entwined with the success of the retail operation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-77898994187917400882012-08-31T18:55:21.486-04:002012-08-31T18:55:21.486-04:00I always try to look at these type of stocks on bo...I always try to look at these type of stocks on both an operating basis and a sale/asset value basis (and weigh the possibility of sale). On an operating basis I would not have paid more than $8 for a company with $3 in cash and securities and $0.76 in EPS and no growth (about 6x EPS plus cash). I try to buy at 6x and sell at 10x on most non-growing micro-caps.<br /><br />The asset value is deceptive. Unless they had shown a willingness to sell properties if and when that made financial sense, I would ignore the asset valuation. Tim Eriksenhttp://www.eriksencapital.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-88973135301651340232012-08-31T09:07:22.982-04:002012-08-31T09:07:22.982-04:00Tom,
I agree, that was a big mistake of mine not ...Tom,<br /><br />I agree, that was a big mistake of mine not buying the real estate at enough of a discount. While undervalued the time I'm having to wait is killing my returns.<br /><br />Funny your comment on dividends, I'm in the opposite situation. All my European holdings are taxed highly while I get a break on US stocks, for now at least. The break ends in a few months.<br /><br />I believe the CEO and his sister own 60% of the stock so opportunities to buy when someone's dumping might be rare, but they do come along. I think stink bids work on this stock, I'll see a random trade go through a few dollars lower or higher than the last trade every so often. I had a high ask on it for a while, just in case it hit.<br /><br />NateNate Tobikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660387777171986124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2149523431587168680.post-78775222742988492532012-08-31T08:10:29.404-04:002012-08-31T08:10:29.404-04:00What is important is the return on the real estate...What is important is the return on the real estate, not what it is worth. If it takes 10-15 years to realise the real estate value of some alleys, you'll have very little upside. Return on the alleys is currently weak so I don't see any upside from here.<br /><br />I would be interested under say $40m market cap, not at current price. This can happen when one shareholder is forced to sell this illiquid stock, but I doubt it will. I'm also taxed more than 40% on dividends so that's not helping either.<br /><br />It's good to have a list of such stocks on your watchlist, just in case they get weirdly cheap.Tom Bogaerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568108227312533549noreply@blogger.com