Just Published: Issue 35 of the Oddball Stocks Newsletter!

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"Friendly Hills Bank Plans Dubious Branch Acquisition" $FHLB

Dave Waters writes:

The economic rationale for this branch purchase is dubious at best. Moreover, Friendly Hills is a chronic under-performer that has shown no ability to manage its own assets successfully, let alone the cast-offs of a successful bank.

Also see our recent posts, Shareholder Vote at Friendly Hills Bank and A Story of Two CEOs.

Friendly Hills Bank ($FHLB): "A Story of Two CEOs"

We did a post last month about the upcoming shareholder vote at Friendly Hills Bank (FHLB) regarding the proposed acquisition of three branches, all from Southern California Bancorp (BCAL). A Friendly Hills shareholder wrote in today with his analysis of the situation, which we are sharing below.

The key thing to understand is that the proposed acquisition is a "story of two CEOs": one CEO is buying three branches that the other CEO owns and wants to get rid of. 

What you worry about is an adverse selection problem: how can the buying CEO make sure that the price he's paying is low enough when he's buying an asset from someone who knows it better (asymmetric information problem) and wants to get rid of it. 

Is the Friendly Hills CEO familiar with one of the all-time most important economics papers, "The Market for Lemons"? Since the assets come with expense commitments, it is even possible that he should be getting paid to take them!

Friendly Hills BANK Story ... by Nate Tobik

Double Bottomline Corp. Reaches Definitive Agreement to Purchase Community Savings Bancorp, Inc. ($CCSB)

Press release yesterday: 

Double Bottomline Corp. ("DB") and Evan M. Stone have reached a definitive agreement with Community Savings Bancorp, Inc. (OTC: CCSB), and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Community Savings, a federal savings and loan association, to acquire Community Savings Bancorp, Inc. ("CCSB"), the registered savings and loan holding company for Community Savings. The aggregate merger consideration for the transaction is $9.5 million, subject to adjustment as provided in the definitive agreement. CCSB currently estimates that, without any adjustments, this will result in approximately $22.76 per share to the current holders of CCSB common stock. However, the estimated per share consideration may be subject to significant adjustment based on a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, transaction costs and whether the organization obtains CDFI status, as defined below. As a result, CCSB shareholders should not assume they will receive $22.76 per share upon closing of the transaction. Community Savings operates a full service location in Caldwell, Ohio. As of March 31, 2021, CCSB reported $59.58 million in total assets and total equity capital of $7.79 million. 

We wrote about Community Savings Bancorp in Issue 16 of the Oddball Stocks Newsletter (March 2017) when it was trading for $13.25. It had just de-mutualized at that point and was trading at a big discount to book value. Here was how Nate explained the idea in that Issue:

Following the conversion their equity to assets is about 18%, and their Tier 1 ratio should be about 40%. These are very high levels. The significant excess capital explains the paltry 0.2% return on equity (“ROE”). The bank barely ekes out a profit with a 97% efficiency ratio. The bank only has $32m in loans with the rest of their assets sitting in cash or investment securities. This is truly the epitome of a bank net-net if there ever was one.

Many people will think about all of this for a second and wonder why anyone would pay book value for this dog. After all, there are any number of people who believe that unless a bank can earn something like a 10% ROE they aren’t even worth book value. With that in mind, there are really a few reasons you might want to consider investing in this bank.

The first reason is that by consummating the conversion management took the first step towards realizing value, both for themselves and for shareholders. In most cases mutual banks convert either as a way to grow or as a way to cash out. There are banking regulations that prevent newly converted mutuals from selling within three years of their IPO date, but they are permitted to engage in value accretive actions before then. On the first anniversary of their IPO they can buy back stock, and on the second anniversary they can pay a dividend. Once the third anniversary rolls around they are afforded the opportunity, if they wish, to sell and cash out. The statistics on newly demutualized banks selling after the three year mark is encouraging. Over 80% of demutualized banks have been sold to another institution within five years of their IPO. If you’re looking to buy a bank hoping that it will be acquired at a tidy premium (ideally after you’ve made your purchase) then mutuals are fertile ground.

But what if the bank doesn’t want to sell? Remember that the 2 primary reasons to convert are to raise capital for growth or as a means of cashing out. So, if the bank isn’t going to sell and cash out, by process of elimination we are left with a growth strategy. With a larger asset base the bank is in a better position to make additional loans and grow, although it remains to be seen in Community Savings Bancorp’s case. This is because management hasn’t demonstrated any ability to grow beyond drifting up and down with the local economy.

The good news is that the bank’s management has skin in the game along with investors. They purchased 10% of the shares offered in the IPO for approximately $360k in the aggregate. This might seem like a nominal sum to many ritzy investors, but it is significant considering the CEO makes a base salary of $120k and got $20k in bonuses last year.

Community Savings never performed well as a bank, but what mattered in the end was purchasing at a big discount to tangible book value.